16.01.2020: Does it make sense to bet on USD weakness? (USDХ, USD/CAD)


Financial markets calmed down after the long-awaited first phase trade deal had been eventually signed. The US dollar index has been trading marginally lower for the whole day. In the New York trade, the greenback amplified the downtrend. The trade conflict between the US and China has passed its peak. Thus, trade jitters will hardly make a negative impact on financial markets in the medium term. The interim trade deal was concluded without surprises. So, the market gave a moderate response. On Wednesday, the US dollar index managed to bounce from local lows, but it failed to surpass 97.30. Even inflation data did not provide enough support. In the New York session, the index settled down at 97.11 which is an eight-day low. On Thursday, the economic calendar contains a batch of economic reports from the US. The most important of them are retail sales, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and a weekly report on the labor market. Retail sales in the US climbed 0.3% in December at the same rate as in the previous month. The weekly unemployment claims declined 10,000, defying the forecast for an increase. The painstaking trade talks ended up with the conclusion of the interim deal. Now the US dollar is vulnerable to a new minefield. Donald Trump stated that a package of tax reforms is on the table. Citing the Treasury Secretary, these measures could be announced in the middle of the year. A package of tax cuts could provide Donald Trump with solid support during the presidential race. The broad-based weakness of the US dollar impacted on the USD/CAD pair which is trading at near 1.3141 today. In case 1.3036 is broken, the US currency could extend a decline.

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