How to Profit During a Bitcoin Rally? | Alessio Rastani & Peter Brandt


I am bullish on Bitcoin and I remain to be
bullish on Bitcoin as long as we remain above $8,000 to $8,200. This is a market where I want to be long. I do want to change rallies. I want to try to be as
comfortable as possible with my size. Bitcoin is going to suffer in a recession for
the same reason that gold suffered in the last recession. What’s going on, guys? Welcome to our weekly crypto market roundup. I’m Giovanni, and today with us two veteran
traders – Alessio Rastani and Peter Brandt. Welcome to our show, guys. In the last few days, we have been
witnessing an impressive rally in the crypto market, with Bitcoin raising about 20% since
the beginning of the year. And a lot of altcoins like Bitcoin
SV and Dash posting impressive gains. So in this kind of situation, it’s very easy to
get caught up by FOMO and make very bad decisions. On the other hand, you cannot
miss out on these kind of opportunities. So what do you think, guys? What’s the wisest decision that a trader
can do in this kind of situation? I am an advocate of Bitcoin. I don’t do the altcoins. I’m a Bitcoin guy. I think Bitcoin is eventually going
to be the legacy coin. My really only interest is in Bitcoin. I own Bitcoin. I think there is a chance
that Bitcoin has a bottom. Then we have left a lot of the sold out
bulls behind and there is nothing more bullish to a market than a lot of sold out bulls. And my sense is a lot of the
Bitcoin maximalists somehow were shaken out between December 2017 and the recent laws, and they’re going
to be a supporting factor in the market. So I think there is definitely a chance that
we’ve seen the low on the chartist in my charts constructive and perhaps the rally as we
have right now, will have fits and starts while corrections along the way. But I see Bitcoin going higher. I see it going much, much higher. And so from my perspective, this is a
market where I want to be long. I don’t want to chase rallies. I want to try to be as comfortable as possible
with my size and hang on for dear life. Alessio, what’s your view on the situation? Like we saw, we thought this is a rally
and a lot of people are FOMOing in. Do you think it’s time to step back and
wait, and try to make a decision based on rationality? What’s your approach
to this situation? I kind of disagree that we’ve reached FOMO. I think we haven’t even got there yet. I think Peter and yourself, Giovanni,
you’re on the right track. When you said that, I think
majority people actually are in disbelief. I think a lot of the majority of people in
the Bitcoin community at the moment are in the disbelief stage, or at least they
were a few days ago. So I’ve been bullish now on Bitcoin, at least
for a couple of weeks since beginning of this month, as a matter of fact, January. A week ago, actually, I posted a video saying
pretty much what Peter just said, that I think we’ve likely bottomed. And about over a week ago now, I posted
another video, I said basically, if Bitcoin goes over $7,600, that’s it. This is a bullish move. And I’ll be bullish. So I’ve been bullish now for
at least for a few weeks. Where I would disagree with
Peter on this point. And actually, again, I see
where Peter’s coming from. And I think there is a
high probability we’ve bottomed here. I still think the probability
is not that high. I think, I mean, it’s high, but
it depends how you measure it. I would say it’s my 65%
probability that we’ve probably bottomed here. I would like to be more bullish than that. The only reason is, we’ve seen
these kind of breakouts before. We’ve seen how Bitcoin on the weekly chart
breaks out of a channel, breaks above the moving average like the 21 moving average. And then a few weeks afterwards it kind
of fails and moves back down again. Now I’m not saying that’s
what’s going to happen here. I don’t think it’s going to happen like that. But again, it’s a probability. And as I know, Peter is a
probabilities guy as I am as well. I would say, look, we just need to see
how this weekly, we need another week of positive momentum, pushing it above
the 21 week average. I am bullish on Bitcoin and I
remain to be bullish on Bitcoin. As long as we remain above $8,000 to $8,200. $8,200 is a weekly 21 moving average. We need to remain above that, at
least for another couple of weeks. And this another week I’d say. And if we do, that’s great. I think Bitcoin has a good chance of
lifting off here and going significantly higher. But as long as it remains above $8,200,
$8,000 is the cutoff point for me. Thanks, Alessio. Peter, do you have anything
to add on what Alessio just said? Yeah, no, I agree. I don’t think we FOMOed yet. The sentiment that I pick up on social media
is the same people that kept for years talking about to the moon, to
the moon, to the moon. I now say, no, it’s not time yet. It’s not that they’re bullish,
it’s not that they’re bearish. It’s just that they don’t think it’s time. They are all now want to sit in, buy
a break, get back to $6,000 or $5,000. They’ve missed the bottom. And during that bottom, I think you had a
lot of people accumulate who were strong hands. The weekends are up, the strong hands on it. What is the best way for someone to
make money with crypto at the moment? According to you, Peter? Well, I think it’s kind
of a loaded question, Giovanni. I mean, that’s the problem is a lot of
the relatively new people who have come into the speculative markets because of Bitcoin, they’re like:
How do I make money now? That’s the wrong question. I mean, the right question is how do you
position yourself to make money over a longer period of time? And in the meanwhile,
keep your risk at the margins. And, you know, it’s the immediacy,
I want to make money now. I mean, that’s why we tend to get booms
and busts in markets as people become short term. I think you make money long term by
preparing yourself now, not necessarily making money now. And I just think that the longer term,
the way to make money is try to accumulate quality during times when people
want to be sellers. And right now we’re in
an upper stage in Bitcoin. My opinion is Bitcoin can go to a $100,000. It’s not going to go there
day after day after day. There’s going to be periods of days and weeks,
perhaps even months ahead of us where we see Bitcoin come under pressure. It’s periods like that where a person wants
to broaden their horizon and not think about today or next hour or next week. But how do you position yourself to, you know,
to benefit if Bitcoin goes to $100,000 or more? And so that’s the mindset I
think someone has to come in. As you know, they’re just trying to get
themselves positioned for a larger story, for a bigger gain and, you
know, a broader perspective. So I guess that’s how I dance to that. Would you say that this is a
time where it’s good to accumulate Bitcoin? Well, we’ve had a good run here. I mean, I think definitely people have
to have their foot in the water. I’m not sure somebody who is brand new to
Bitcoin or does not have a position in Bitcoin wants to jump off of a high, high
diving board at this point into shallow water. But I think anybody who is interested in what
Bitcoin has to offer has to have at least 10%, 20% of an ownership position relative to
the capital that they could commit to Bitcoin in a bigger perspective. Okay, Alessio, what do you think is the best
way at the moment for a trader to profit from the current situation and
make money with crypto? Well, I’m not a short term trader. Most of my positions are, again, as Peter
was saying, long term position trades or swings positions. For me personally, I would say at the
moment, you know, I’m long and I think that’s probably the more sensible way to be
on Bitcoin unless we fall below the support positions that I mentioned earlier. Best thing to do is I would say three things
and this can be applied not just to Bitcoin, but most markets. But I think
these principles I would stick to. Number one, whenever, you know, whenever everybody is
on one side, have got into the extreme, try and be on the other side. So like people recently have
been on the bearish side. It’s good to do the opposite. At some point in the very near
future, you’re gonna see the exact opposite. Once Bitcoin, I think Bitcoin probably will
go into something like a parabolic rally. If that happens, once that
happens, be very careful. Number two, have an exit strategy. Now, if you’re a
hodler, you’re holding forever. Then maybe this won’t be of much help to you. But if you’re looking to trade Bitcoin, then
definitely you’ve got to have an exit position. So whether it’s a trailing stop,
whether it’s a target, whatever, you just gotta have an exit position. And three, protect your bottom
line, protect yourself against… when Bitcoin, when the price that’s something
which goes against your original plan. If the reason why you got into the market
is no longer present or valid, you’ve got to get out. Simple as that. So you gotta have an exit strategy not
just for profits, but also for protecting yourself against risk, simple as that. The spike
in Bitcoin price during the latest Iran-U.S. escalations sparked discussion on whether Bitcoin can
be really considered or will become a safe haven asset in times of turmoil. What is your take on this issue? Peter? Let Alessio go first on that one. I mean, I got a
simple answer to that question. Ask many folks, people know, people
who watched my videos before. I’ve actually traveled to Iran. I’ve been there at least four
or five times to Iran. I think Peter said, you’ve been there too,
right, to Shiraz or something like that, Peter? I have not. All right, okay, maybe my mistake, sorry. So essentially all I would say is that
I think the whole geopolitical impact on Bitcoin is exaggerated. And even if
it’s true, it doesn’t matter. Doesn’t matter to me one bit what the
impact is and I think it’s dubious anyway. This whole so-called geopolitical impact of Iran on
Bitcoin, I think is truly, I don’t buy into that. And again, I’m not
a fundamentals guy, I’m a technicals guy. And for me, the price
action is what really matters. And I think for the vast 80% of
traders, professional traders, it’s the same thing. I let Peter answer that. I mean, we see this in all markets. It hits gold. It hits crude oil. They pass. I mean, I just remember back to when the
US started bombing Iraq back in January of 1991. you know, overnight, the price of crude
oil was up $5 a barrel. By the time we came in the
morning, price went down $8 a barrel. Those things come and go. They don’t have any lasting stain. Everybody points to them. There is one other thing is, I
think Bitcoin is a store of value. I think Bitcoin eventually will have a major impact
as a way to settle a global financial trade and commerce. Bitcoin is a safe haven. I think that’s a stretch. Unfortunately, we never had a situation where
Bitcoin has existed during an economic crisis. The last economic crisis we
had was in 2008, 2007-2008. Bitcoin did not exist back then. For me, I would have to actually see for
myself what happens to Bitcoin during the next potential recession. I don’t think a recession
is even likely until the year 2021. Probably middle of the year 2021
based on some of the factors. But my position is, as I’ve said before, that
I think Bitcoin is going to suffer in a recession for the same reason that
gold suffered in the last recession. When the last recession occurred in
2008, gold dropped by 30 %. Lost 1/3 of its value. For the same reason, I think Bitcoin would
also drop in the next recession because most people have to raise cash. Gold essentially got liquidated just like all
other assets did, most assets did. Essentially for governments and people to raise
cash because they needed, obviously, the money during an economic crisis and I think
that’s what’s gonna happen also to Bitcoin. Now, again, I stand to be corrected on that. We’ll have to see. I know there are some
people who are probably going to disagree with that. That’s OK, but that’s my position. Peter, do you also think that during a
recession, Bitcoin would suffer as other assets? Yeah, I mean. You know, historically during recessions, people
want to go to cash. They want liquidity. They’re scrambling. They’re defensive. You know, that’s not tied people
head out and take chances on. What still is an unknown
derivative to most people. So, yeah, I would agree with Alessio on that. A lot of people are saying that the
halving is already priced in at the moment. Other people are saying that we need to
expect skyrocketing in the prices of Bitcoin because of the halving. What’s your
take on this situation, Alessio? A lot of people keep commenting on
my video saying the same thing. You know, the halving all
this stuff, you know. I’ll be honest with you, I think it’s… I don’t agree. I don’t think that halving,
I think it will be a non-event. I think, as you put it yourself
and your in your e-mail to me. I think it’s going to be a non-event. I
don’t think it’s gonna have a major impact. There might be some volatility for sure
as we near the date of halving. But now, look, market has already known about the
halving for a long time, way over a year now. So I can’t see how possibly this
halving event is gonna have a major massive impact on the price of Bitcoin. I think it’s already been
absorbed into the price. Yeah, sure. Again, some
volatility might happen. Again, I’m not a fundamentals
guy, I’m a technicals guy. And I care more about what the price
action is saying than some fundamental event which everybody is know for some time. I don’t see halving as
a big market force here. It probably already priced in. If not, I don’t think
it matters, quite frankly. I think people are pointing to it out
of hope, but it’s a narrative that’s overblown. Yeah, I would agree with that. Thank
you guys for the great conversation. See you next time. And you guys, don’t
forget to subscribe to our channel and continue staying tuned for more exciting content
on the latest crypto market updates.

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