This week in Bitcoin- 2-21-2020- Leveraged traders, fractional reserves, Defi, Treasury yields


Hello everyone this
is adam meister the bitcoinmeister the disrupt meister welcome to this week in
bitcoin today is February the 21st 2020 oh yeah
strong hand golden age of the 2020s bitcoin is the next bitcoin emotion
value your wealth in bitcoin it’s the apex predator I’m offended by something
we’re gonna talk about that uncommon skateable alright hello my elite friends
maybe we’ll have time for questions you can type in bitcoin meister in there or
do a super chat to get my attention but we’ve got three awesome guests coming
from all around the world and you love all these guys they are veterans in many
ways UK bitcoin massive Boris is here and Bitcoin Tina is in the house oh yeah
everyone is really excited I pumped I spoke yesterday in Long Beach I’m going
to Las Vegas tomorrow I won’t fire pound that like button people so let’s start
off with a quote from the always controversial and fun Bitcoin Tina where
is the quote okay I’m tired of people blaming Bitcoin Wales for knocking the
price down whoever thought trading Bitcoin in insanely volatile asset with
leverage deserves to lose their money only a complete moron trades Bitcoin
with leverage every leverage trader is on the way to know coiner okay what is
that all about Bitcoin Tina yeah I’m a guy that’s offended by something but you
seem like you’re really offended by some well I agree with you Adam I think that
I think trading generally is really quite hard I think that
it looks easy it you know when we watch work fighters in the ring we watch all
players these guys make stuff look easy but it’s not you get into the ring with
a heavyweight champ you get into the ring with the middleweight champ you get
get on a basketball court with professional players baseball diamond
with professional players it’s not easy it’s a very very hard game and when you
start to trade that’s what you’re training with now granted your biggest
enemy is yourself when it comes to trading most people aren’t really very
good at it and most people like themselves on how good they think they
are at trading they don’t really evaluate what their returns would look
like over really long periods of time when you’re factoring in taxes as well
as your total P&L and I think that what we’re going to find for many people is
that over the course of a full cycle you’re going to find out that you didn’t
trade nearly as well as you thought you did
and you’re going to find out that you’re going to have done a lot better as a hot
ler I think that there’s a very small percentage of people who are really good
successful traders and I think that number is actually quite small and I
think that most people are actually quite bad at it really good traders
benefit a lot from really bad traders that’s whose pockets they pick and I
think that in a major bull market which I I see Bitcoin as being the biggest
secular bull market in all of history and I think that measured properly
measured over a full cycle which is gotta be at least four years very few
will outperform Hottel and I think that given the fact that we watch this thing
24/7 and we are very attuned to the price
typically look I watch the price but I am NOT trading I have traded over the
years I’m not trading this asset at all we think that we can buy it well sell it
well and the worst lies that we tell ourselves the worst lies that we tell
are the lies we tell ourselves and I think that everybody I tell this to they
argued me tell me no I know what I’m doing I can do it and I don’t honestly
believe that they will find over the course of a four year period five year
period that they will have outperformed simply buying several times the form of
dollar cost averaging and really looking for long long run swing trading so I
have no problem if you want to sell a little bit of wherever you think the top
is I don’t know where the top is fifty thousand hundred thousand two hundred
thousand four hundred thousand who knows maybe more and you want to take
something off of there sure go ahead you’re up 5 X 10 X 20 X more definitely
take some off you we might have a another drawdown which is significant
and you’ll be able to redeploy you’re entitled to spend that money live well
be able to go out and do the things that you like buy the things that you like
that’s why we do what we do and investing but shorter term trades are
extremely hard this market reverses itself rapidly you the other day we ran
up I don’t know a little less than 10% and we sold off similarly about 10% I
don’t know how anybody could possibly trade these things I who doesn’t tell me
they do very well trading well I get into the leverage aspect of it because
the base level for me too is it’s similar like how can anyone even trade
this but why are people getting getting leveraged on this stuff well the
argument the argument is this the argument is well if I put up a relative
small position a half a percent of 1% position and I lever myself five to one
ten to one and people leverage themselves more they think they can
trade it and the problem is that the argument as well if I get it right just
once and I’ve made a 10x bet 20 X 50 X bet then I can afford to lose X number
of times the real question is are you really evaluating your P&L properly over
a significant time horizon I think that people are going to find looking back on
this period that the returns over the course of the next year two years three
years four years maybe anywhere from 20 X to 50 X and I think it’s going to be
pretty hard to outperform so if you and if you had a thousand dollars and you
lost that thousand dollars and it turns out that we went from lower numbers we
went from three and four thousand five thousand we go up to three hundred
thousand four hundred thousand dollars I don’t think you can outperform that
people agree with me that we’re gonna do numbers like that they think I’m crazy
thinking a hundred thousand dollars people go after guys like Plan B who
says that his numbers show we could do a hundred thousand dollars potentially
within a couple of years people think that’s crazy I don’t happen to think
it’s crazy I actually expect it I think people go after plan B for the after a
hundred thousand dollar predictions that doesn’t the after a hundred thousand
dollar predictions don’t matter first we gotta make it to one hundred thousand
some people are very impatient some people like the clickbait and some
people like to song huge numbers I don’t think talking about the six-digit realm
is a it’s too crazy I don’t think it’s too I don’t think that’s too wild I
don’t think that’s it I don’t I don’t think that the much bigger numbers are
crazy either and the way I see that is I reflect back on the early 90s when I
remember people having a very hard time imagining companies that could trade at
the kind of market caps they were trading at and today those self-same
companies are household names trading at some of the biggest market caps in the
world so I think that what you have in the way
of Bitcoin is you have something which is not going to be measured along the
lines of companies but compared to markets it will be compared to the gold
market it will be compared to the stock market the global stock market the US
stock market it will be compared to the bond market it will be compared to the
real estate market and in time will be bigger than all of those markets and
likely bigger than maybe a few of them combined alright alright looking forward
to that Hey UK Bitcoin master you break down break
down trading for us what’s what’s your take on all the people getting leveraged
up on the trading okay I’ll I’ll simplify it for you all because many
years ago I tried to get into trading I bought a trading course I went along to
to some seminars and I’ve tried to get my head around it and it just totally
freaked me out and I I didn’t want to do it when Bitcoin came along and you know
being a novice in May 2017 I knew nothing about Bitcoin I’d never heard a
bit going and then somebody presented it to me and I thought I had to trade so
the first thing I did was got on Google and started looking who was out there
that could teach me this rate and I came across a guy that had been on Wall
Street for 15 years and he started them doing all this stuff and I was following
his videos and thinking this is crazy I don’t understand any of this I’m now
getting a serious headache so I did some more delving you know I came across a
guy called Bitcoin Meister and I followed him for two and a half years
solid and I can tell you now I don’t understand any of it I don’t even want
to understand any of it all I want to do is buy and hold Bitcoin and just enjoy
my life doesn’t matter what we say doesn’t matter how we profess this is
going to happen that’s gonna happen the only thing that’s going to happen is
absolutely guaranteed it’s the fact that Bitcoin will do what it does when it
does it and you or I won’t influence it in any way so the only thing I ever want
to get out there on my channel is buy get off and exchange onto a trésor and
get on and enjoy your life and don’t wish the next decade away because it’s
gonna come whether we want it to come or whether we don’t want it to come you
just well buy and hold and enjoy your life that’s my take I don’t underst
then he wasn’t out of them Oh pal Matt shrieking like button people he put it
he brought it down to the real level there right there man that that’s with
you I was too I like that I like that a lot
yeah don’t don’t worry about those price flip fluctuations long-term thinking for
us any any comments on what we’ve been talking about here yeah yeah look um
well first of all I think what people start to trace they look to the past and
even if you have a 99.9 percent chance of losing everything people go like oh
that means that I have a chance to win a lot of money that’s what people play the
lottery it makes no rational sense but people do
it anyway and personally I don’t mind but I think it’s an easy door inside the
rabbit hole you have no idea what bitcoin is so you trade it because it’s
worthless because you don’t understand the fundamentals and once you lose
enough money you will learn this lesson and you will learn more about the
fundamentals of Bitcoin so to be honest I don’t really care about traders that
much I don’t trade myself there’s a guy
Christopher Cole I think he works for this investment firm called Artemis
capital and he tweeted out I think it was in December last year and I retweet
it and it it stuck with me for a long time he said volatility is an instrument
of truth it is regardless of how it is measured volatility is the difference
between the world as we imagine it and the world that exists and I think that’s
so beautiful because the surprise discovery is fundamentally important for
Bitcoin otherwise we will never reach the levels that plan B is he’s not
actually predicting it predicting is a wrong word but it’s all stuck to flow
model if you believe in that model then the price levels that come from this
model are a given unless the model breaks of course so if you if you like
this model and if you believe in this these fundamentals of Bitcoin the
reasons why this model will work then yeah I mean you’re gonna lose money if
you trade it and you’re gonna be happy when you huddle it but I on regardless I
understand both sides I understand I see a lot of people in my surroundings and
you know I find get him to buy buy a little bit of
Bitcoin and I see him again like in six weeks and they are they are on Finance
betting it all the way I’m going to never even heard of and basically that’s
I don’t understand it but it’s happening again it happened in 2017 and it’s
happening again and it makes no rational sense but I guess people just like to
gamble and they want to be rich yeah people like to gamble
it’s all cyclical the gamblers will be back hey everybody’s got to play their
role in the ecosystem I guess now let’s let’s move on to something we were
talking about affair something that you want to talk about Baris actually safe
haven that asset Bitcoin coronavirus with what’s going on yeah I think this
is huge news and it’s highly unreported and everyone who follows the financial
markets is noticing this crazy dynamic that whenever I mean when good news
happens the markets go up when bad news happens the markets go up and when worse
news happens the markets go up even more it’s insane it does it does make no it
makes no sense and so we have this coronavirus threatening between 60 and
80 percent of China’s productions which is basically that’s everything that we
get here in the West from toilet paper to medicine I mean this really you can
even start describing the impact that these quarantine measures have on the
production of China and we see it starting now in Japan we see it starting
in South Korea this is this is going to be that the implications of this are
going to be absolutely huge there is no way you should own stock in Boeing or
him in cruise ship companies or in car production or any production company
that that’s involved in production in China or gets the parts in some way from
China it is going to be absolutely horrendous and so what’s happening we
see bit gonna go up so we see the markets go up only Bitcoin go up and
that’s very that’s fascinating we start at the beginning at first we saw it with
the Salaam assassination that the Iranian general
was killed near Baghdad markets went down for short short period to a small
correction and Bitcoin went up gold went up too and this was the first time ever
now we see it again with her own advice actually we see it again today
markets are down a bit there’s a dip of Bitcoin goes up it’s extremely
interesting and I think personally I mean you never know but I think people
understand more about the fundamentals of Bitcoin and when you do that when
when investors start to understand the fundamentals it is a natural safe haven
so we’ll see this more it’s it’s the first time we noticed it but it’s huge
it’s absolutely huge news okay I’m gonna tie this in with the Bitcoin Tina here
with an article from well it’s a title that kind of goes with the flow but
we’re saying the 30-year Treasury yield inches toward all-time low as corona
virus spreads beyond china okay so they’re trying to connect the the 30
yield the 30 year 10-year Treasury and 30-year Treasury year or 30-year
Treasury yield to to this so what do you have to say about the safe haven aspect
I’m gonna disagree pretty strongly with Boris okay I in fact that disagree with
almost everything he said okay one Bitcoin is not about the legacy markets
bitcoin is about an emerging economic paradigm Bitcoin is neither a safe haven
asset nor a risk on asset the coin is actually both Bitcoin will do well in a
risk-off environment and a risk on environment Bitcoin will do well under
all circumstances Bitcoin will be super charged because the central banks are
flooding the system with liquidity and Bitcoin as a scarce asset of verifiably
scarce asset will do extraordinarily well in that environment
some people believe there’ll be a hard deflationary crash I disagree with that
pretty strongly I’ve been looking for that for 30 years and I’m convinced we
won’t see that because we’ll see continued easing from global central
banks however if you were to get a global deflationary
crash if you control your own private keys you will have access to the best
money in the world and many people won’t get their money back or we’ll get it
back only piecemeal so in that event you might say that bitcoin is a safe haven
asset however prices of Bitcoin will almost certainly crash in that situation
except unlike people who have their money in banks or brokerage firms you’ll
get your money more rapidly – after they start easing dramatically liquidity will
flow into assets and it will especially flow into Bitcoin because bitcoin is a
scarce asset so I don’t like calling Bitcoin a risk on asset or risk off
asset i think bitcoin is good in all places at all times and I don’t like to
limit what the potentiality of owning Bitcoin is I think it’s the let me put
it this way there is no alternative all right so farst you have thoughts on that
yeah I mean of course it’s a it’s either risk-on risk-off it will almost be
perceived in that way and now that we see or institutional investors I mean
not lot of the funds itself but just people who are into the markets who are
trading taking Bitcoin seriously they’re gonna judge it they’re going to look at
insa like is this gonna rewards me with high return or not and once you know
more about about the fundamental Bitcoin you all understand exactly what what bit
continue is saying on the other hand people are still valuing their wealth in
dollars and as long as they’re there valuing their wealth in dollars but
midcontinent saying only goes for a bit corners I mean if you value your wealth
in Bitcoin of course it doesn’t matter whether the price in dollars goes up or
goes down and I agree that there might not be a crash and become will do well
in any scenario but still most people perceive their wealth in in dollars so
they will judge Bitcoin ssss risk-on risk-off assets and I like I like the
way that people learning about Bitcoin
understanding the fundamentals and maybe seeing it more as a risk of asset
because it doesn’t behave in in synchronicity with the markets and
that’s I think that’s very interesting that’s people are learning about Bitcoin
understanding fundamentals all right Bitcoin Tina did you have anything to
say about the the Treasury yield there’s a lot of good I just wanna I just want
to come I just want to come back to this because I think this is really important
and I really could not disagree more I don’t like to limit just because people
think about something a certain way doesn’t mean they’re right to think
about about it that way and if you fall into that trap of
thinking about as a risk off asset that means that people will sell sell it
aggressively in a risk on environment and I think that’s completely wrong at
the end of the day the biggest benefit one of the reasons stocks are going up
as much as they are another capital assets like real estate is because
central banks are pouring enormous liquidity into the system and bitcoin is
an enormous beneficiary of this in fact I think you’ll see Bitcoin go up at huge
multiples and ultimately magnitudes versus every other asset stocks real
estate gold and every other asset that exists out there because bitcoin is
going to grow to levels that people can’t imagine because of its qualities
as the money as well as its scarcity the fact that you have inelastic supply the
fact that you have fixed supply and so when you say that it’s a risk off asset
I think you’re very much doing people an enormous disservice and I really take
strong issue with this and I don’t like it described is that gold from my
perspective is a truly crappy asset I hate gold I’ll be on go on record of
saying I don’t like gold in any way shape or form people do not understand
more than a hundred million ounces of gold is produced every year the numbers
are enormous that’s 160 billion dollars of new buying power that has to go into
gold I think gold has done reasonably well
and as well as one could expect given this because the amount of supply the
amount of news that comes into the market every year is
enormous at the next having of 900 Bitcoin per day that would price out at
160 billion dollars of new money if that new money came into Bitcoin based on 900
Bitcoin today but that gives you an average price than ever four hundred and
fifty thousand dollar Bitcoin at the having after that at four hundred and
fifty Bitcoin per day that gives you a price in the neighborhood of nine
hundred and almost almost a million dollars per Bitcoin this idea and I
don’t disagree that there are risks out there I just don’t think that those
risks are relevant or pertinent to why one buys Bitcoin regardless I think
we’ll see continued I think we are an inevitable course I think we have a
reckless train wreck in the global financial markets I think
the central banks will continue doing what they’re doing because I think if
they ease off on what they’re doing ultimately you have a high risk of a
global deflationary crash I think we live in a world where negative rates are
a high likelihood necessarily guaranteed but very high likelihood I think you’re
gonna see continued easing I think you’re gonna see more creativity around
how central bank’s ease will have more not QE will have QED will have other
forms of padding the central bank’s balance sheets no there would be nothing
that the central banks do which would surprise me when I compare what the
central banks do today versus how central banks were perceived twenty-five
years ago the central banks have basically pretty much on mass lost their
mind as has most investors if I said this in the podcast if you were to talk
to somebody if we magically go back in time to 1995 and you had serious Wall
Street analysts or economists talking about the kinds of things going on
that’s accepted as normal in today’s financial markets and an activity by
central banks people would think that that person was absolutely off their
rocker out of their mind and would probably consider removing them from
their job if they held a job at a major white-shoe firm on Wall Street or any
other Wall Street equivalent around the world this I just don’t think can be
stated too much not only that I think we have a brewing anger amongst the public
and I think that’s obvious on all kinds of movements we see it in many countries
we see it in the United States this is the level of anger that you see in our
politics today and I think that I will be shocked absolutely shocked if we do
not see some form of mmt ubi some form of massive infrastructure projects money
from the sky from federal government’s spent and and and and tossed around the
economy and I have said and will say again QE is the gasoline and ubi /mm T
is the spark and I think we see this going everywhere and and and to me
there’s no other asset to own but Bitcoin you have to own high quality I’m
not gonna curse on the show I promise that hey W a WTF asset and I think
everybody knows what that means minimum 1% position if you have a 1% position in
Bitcoin 2% position if you’re a stock investor and you have the rest
substantial money in stocks and maybe some money in bonds if you lose
everything in your Bitcoin position you can write that off against gains of your
other investments it won’t even and I’m talking there and I’d say it won’t even
cost you 1% when you factor in the tax effect of this so I really I hear people
talk about Bitcoin as a risk off asset and by all means buy it as a risk off
accent but also by all means buy it as a risk on asset as well because it’s much
more than either one of those things it is about an emerging economic paradigm
and we’re so early in this I’m sure that most people think I’m off my rocker but
I saw some really good guys a camera in the man’s name right now we talked about
the third Industrial Revolution I think we will find in the fullness of time and
I hope I live to see this as I’m not young that we will see an emerging
economic paradigm develop people like Ray Kurzweil
Peter Diamandis have talked about it from singularity University as have
others I think that the world is changing in some very significant ways
and Bitcoin will very much be a part of it so regardless of whether it’s risk-on
risk-off this is an asset you absolutely must own
and you should not be bouncing in and bouncing out because it’s risk on and
risk off and I’m gonna buy it I’m gonna sell it I’m gonna buy it I’m gonna sell
it and goes back to the trading comments I think you want to own it in all times
in all places and have a position that you hold on to because there may be some
period of time where this thing goes up and amounts it you can’t possibly
imagine you don’t have that asset on you’ll be buying it at prices which are
unbelievably higher I’m sorry for monopolizing the time then age baby
we’re entering a golden age but not with gold with Bitcoin I don’t know what if
it’s a Bitcoin age Boris it’s since you guys are going back
and forth on let you get the final word before we get Brian in here oh well
really I don’t disagree with container everything he says I agree completely
with my perspective on it is that I talk to a lot of people who are starting to
invest in Bitcoin starting to learn about Bitcoin and they absolutely
perceive it they want to know what the risk is and they understand if there’s a
high risk ism I probably there’s a high upside I possible upside and that
explains the volatility and that’s what people trade them or whatever and it’s
all great and if you understand that I try to talk to them about the
fundamentals so that they don’t do that they don’t perceive it the way that as a
risk on risk of a asset so I absolutely agree with container on the other end it
takes time with container I’m wondering how long did it take you before you
finally realize that bitcoin is this fundamental asset which is
non-correlated moves outside of the realm of the traditional markets mm a
year at most I started studying it very aggressively I’ve had an orientation
looking at these issues for many many years and I’ll give you a suggestion as
to how you handle that don’t oversize yourself size yourself on
your basis of understanding if you’re going to be shaken out
by the extreme price moves then you own too much if you can’t hold for a move
down 5060 percent you own too much you should be able to expect that you’ll
have a move that’s down significantly I bought Bitcoin starting in the fall of
2017 my first price was probably a four thousand dollar range and I bought all
the way up and then I bought all the way down and my average price is not not a
great price and not a terrible price I think that when it broke from six to
three thousand I started drinking bourbon every day that was a rough that
was that was very rough for me in in November of 2018 when when I did not
think Bitcoin was gonna crack from 6 to 3000 but I didn’t sell any I actually
bought more there were people at the time who were talking about $1,000
Bitcoin $2,000 Bitcoin I thought they were out of their mind but I argued
pretty aggressively against the idea of potentially for $3,000 Bitcoin so I
wasn’t about to argue as strenuously and left myself room to buy if we actually
hit those prices because it would have been necessary to get my average down to
make money to make it through you know further periods in the owning Bitcoin so
you know if you buy a $2,000 it goes to ten that’s a 5x on your money so that
buys you I buys you a lot of time you have to be prepared for what this asset
is which is why I’m so against leveraged trading and generally against trading
you need to position yourself so that you can handle these very sharp draw
downs those draw downs are opportunity you should be buying on draw downs down
30% 40% 50% 80% you should not be a seller at those prices
you’re giving up massive upside by selling at those prices so if you can’t
handle the volatility your position is just too big and there is no reason that
there’s not a single person who should not be able to handle a 1% position with
80% draw downs that that’s an easy thing to do it’s very hard to get hurt falling
off a curb you shouldn’t be jumping off the roof so if your
understanding is not great don’t own that much of it and it’s these leverage
traders who take these positions who wind up in creating all of this
volatility because they panic out of their positions or in leverage in the
leverage case they don’t panic out the the equivalent of the margin clerk
liquidates them so it creates this cascade of selling and so it’s not the
guy who’s coming in and dumping four thousand Bitcoin on the market that’s
knocking it down it’s all those minnows who have those leverage trades on to get
knocked down and liquid it that takes Bitcoin down $1,000 in five minutes so I
think that there’s an easy answer to this just don’t own as much if you’re
not so if you’re not so piggy in your position you don’t have to swing for the
fences most investors do well by by by getting on base and you know moving
along the basis and gradually clicking in those runs get comfortable
understanding what bitcoin is why you want to own it why it’s an asset you
must own start off with a half a percent position a 1% position learn about it
read safe in his book the Bitcoin standard read every article by Parker
Lewis from Unchained Capital any serious investor who does not read every article
from Parker Lewis is not a serious investor they cannot possibly understand
this I keep recommending to people to read the articles on unchain capital by
Parker Lewis called gradually then suddenly you have to read those things
if your professional investment you haven’t read those days you have not
done any due diligence whatsoever you don’t know what you’re looking at you
don’t know what you’re talking about if you haven’t read the Bitcoin standard
and you’ve got people who have pretty much no clue as to what they’re doing in
Bitcoin take a smaller position take the position you can run if it gets knocked
down 25 or 30 or 50 percent do what most hollers do say oh thank you God I can
buy more cheaper instead of buying a million sacks I can now buy two million
sacks for the same money and that’s when hard lawyers do and that’s that’s the
way to make money in this thing because you want to look at this over the course
of a year two years five years ten years not over
the course of a week or a month of trading that’s what people who don’t
know what they’re doing are doing in Bitcoin so many people are gonna look
back at this period of time saying oh my god I could have owned so much more and
that’s exactly what’s already happened in the last ten years
whoa that that was a classic therefore Vic point Tina everyone okay well I’m
gonna try I want to get Brian back on here
was he silent for a while do you have thoughts on what has just that what you
hear well I’ve just been listening in all to be perfectly honest I come on
these shows as a complete novice to learn and you know whenever you’ve got
your this week in Bitcoin and your guests I was saying to Boris
I’d Boris on as my guest about a week or so ago and I sort of said to Boris you
know that I listen to your an album show and everything you say you guys when you
start getting technical goes right over my head but I’m just in all of it and
I’m learning and all it’s doing is building my strong hand so in terms of
where I’m coming from I don’t have a view either way with what orosi said or
what bitcoin teener has said all I can do from my own perspective and and maybe
I’m unique I don’t know Adam but you know I got a call on the 23rd of may
2017 I’d never heard the name crypto I’d never heard the name Bitcoin I’ve never
heard of it didn’t know what it was I was getting on my my life I’d retired
down to the sunny Canary Islands to see the rest of my life fell and I get this
call and it’s like in the rabbit hole and the first thing that I come across
is this trading aspect then I come across your channel and then I realize I
don’t understand anything about anything all I know is I need to buy and I need
to buy whatever I can as fast as I can because this thing’s gonna moon right so
I get that out of the way and then I start to really learn and I don’t know
how many of your shows I’ve watched but every single one without missing a day
even on catch up on what I start to realize it isn’t just gonna go up and up
and up and up and up and up and up and up and up it is gonna go up and up and
up and then it’s gonna crash and then you need your strong hand and it’s gonna
go up and it’s going to crash so in terms of what I just been listening to
I’m with Bitcoin Tina in as much as I don’t know how I
know it I just know that I’m in the right place at the right time and all I
got to do is stay calm so I bought my bitcoins my first Bitcoin Bitcoin Tina
said four thousand dollars or something there about I thought you said my first
one was fifteen hundred British pounds then I brought some more at two and a
half thousand whole bitcoins and you know then I see 2017 and I see the moon
of late 2017 and I think I’ve died and gone to heaven and then all of a sudden
I see it’s starting to crash back and I’m thinking well that’s not gonna go
anywhere that’ll be alright and I watch it go down and I watch it go down and I
watch it go down and I watch it go down and we get to 3,200 and my hand is
absolutely rock-solid I’ve got my wife in the chat she supports me she’s
following all of this and she will tell you I absolutely don’t care what the
price of Bitcoin is I am in it and I’m going down with the ship and my problem
is because I don’t understand fundamental understanding mentals and
yes I’ve read well I’ve listened to sayfudine a Moose’s book two times it’s
11 and a half hours of listening I left school at 15 with no qualifications so I
wasn’t particularly well educated but that book I just got into it I couldn’t
put it down whenever I was out walking or whatever I was doing I was listening
I had to go back a second time and whilst I don’t understand it all it
makes complete sense the complete sense is this is the best hardest soundest
money you are ever going to find in human history that can’t be manipulated
and why on earth somebody wouldn’t want to get some of their hard-earned money
and put it into Bitcoin as opposed to a flippin bank savings account where
you’ll get nothing for your money I’m watching my in-laws in their
eighties telling me that everything they worked for 4550 years for is not worth a
flippin jaw in terms of what they’re getting back for their savings and yet
for me I clearly see even though I don’t understand the technicals that you go
was talking about I clearly see that this is the future nothing I got on my
own shows you know from the level of understanding that I’ve got in my heart
I just know that if Bitcoin fails that it is it we are done it’s over it’s
finished this how can it fail you know there is everything going for it the
scarcity aspect for one I mean you know I’m not brainy but there’s seven billion
people on the planet there’s something like 39 million millionaires so there
isn’t enough for one millionaire to have one Bitcoin each so when this thing
gained some momentum and everybody wants a slice of it I’m totally and
wholehearted with Bitcoin Tina this thing is gonna go to unparalleled
Heights that we never dreamt was even possible and none of us can even imagine
yet now I don’t know when I’ve got no crystal ball but I’m telling you it’s
going and if it’s not in my lifetime it’s gonna be in the lifetime of my
descendants it’ll have my Bitcoin that’s me that’s some that’s a long-term
thinking there too by the way that was a that was a good one you summed up that
if you saved the best for less is very good I wanna I want to move it on to to
combine into a subject that we were talking off the air real quick and Brian
I don’t think I’ve heard your take on this yet is the having priced in don’t
know I’m gonna clue go to the others I don’t understand it mmm-hmm very that’s
a very honest answer right there I don’t understand the I’m trying I’m trying
sorry Bitcoin Tina I am trying to learn but minee industry I’ve never been
involved in stocks and shares before I tried but it gave me a headache as I
said and I I Adam honestly I absolutely don’t understand the I am not gonna come
on a show and try and rattle on about stuff I don’t understand and I hear you
people talking about it I listen to the the commentators that I follow talking
about it and I’m trying to get my head round it but I just don’t understand it
so I can’t come in alright big coin Tina say what you set off air about the the
having been priced in I talked so much why don’t we let Barth
barse your first step bars Neela all right well very nice I believe they’re
happening they’re having to happening it’s not priced in the question is not
so much whether it’s priced in or not the question is why is it not priced in
and actually I like what Plan B said about that that people who don’t
understand bitcoin perceive the risk as being high so the hovering might lead to
miners who stop mining or don’t make a profit and most of like stuff that we
see with litecoin so if you don’t understand why that won’t happen with
Bitcoin I can imagine they will perceive something like this as a risk I do not
agree with that but I can imagine that people will perceive it that way and
that could be one of the reasons why the higher thing is not priced in I do
believe that there is something as an efficient market hypothesis and and I
think it’s true but only up to a certain up to a certain point because otherwise
there would be no sense in learning about certain assets or certain markets
or companies or whatever then everything would be priced and so it makes sense to
study study the stuff that you’re investing in and if you know a lot about
it like we do with Bitcoin then you know
that the hang is probably not priced in and you can only ask yourself the
question why is that and it has to do with risk all right the big pointing of
your turn I agree with a growth force in what he said I think that understanding
is critical I’ve thought about this a fair bit I was having a conversation
with somebody who was going to have a debate today I don’t know if he’s had
the debate yet or not and I I hate to go into this with who’s having that debate
I don’t want to take any I can’t think the right word for it right now III
don’t want to take away from his debate on this topic but
it occurs to me that in order for determine whether or not something is
priced in we first have to have some kind of metric against which we measure
this thing in my opinion most of the metrics regarding Bitcoin valuation are
extraordinarily poor I’ve seen quite a few metrics out there which I have a
very low opinion of they’re generally based around the idea of attempting to
measure value related to the numbers of transactions and I think that this is
actually a very bad way of measuring the value of Bitcoin for me the way I
measure the value of Bitcoin and I don’t know how to quantify this I’m gonna
butcher this statement Albert Einstein said not all that is important can be
counted and not all that can be counted counts and I think I don’t think I got
that exactly right but it’s close enough just because you can count something
doesn’t mean that gives you the right answer in what you’re looking for and
just because you can’t count it doesn’t mean that thing is not important for me
the primary value proposition of Bitcoin is what I like to call the network of
hollers the same is true in gold why is gold valuable because people want to
hold on to gold they put value into gold and they hold their positions in gold
well that’s precisely why bitcoin is valuable why it’s immensely valuable and
why it will become insanely valuable in this decade numbers that people can’t
imagine it is this effect of the network of HA blurs which drives the price and
the price drives everything else well very few people agree with me on this
and I’m not sure how we measure the network effect of wobblers I’ve seen
people attempt to measure the size of the transactions and the value of those
transactions and how many transactions and I think the concept of Metcalfe’s
law and attempting to measure bitcoin is not a particularly good or appropriate
one for Bitcoin if I have a hot ler who buys and holds on to one Bitcoin
transactions is that worth if a thousand different people hold a Bitcoin for only
a third of a day so it’s going to be worth what that one Hodler does who
holds a Bitcoin for an entire year my numbers of rough numbers here it’s
not 365 days but you know I’m saying ok take 365 times 3 and I’ll give you the
number so it is this demand from people who want to hold on to this asset that
gives it its value because these people value what bitcoin is and little by
little more and more people will come to understand that this is the primary
value proposition of Bitcoin ultimately payment rails will come into play but
how do you measure the network of hollers I don’t know it’s not that easy
and there’s certainly no consensus as to what the network of pablor’s is I have a
view that stock to flow is an attempt and gives you a measurement for the
valuation put on Bitcoin by that network of hot lers so when we look at something
like stock to flow the noise around that number is so high it confuses many
people we started from the last having in the neighborhood of 400 and some odd
dollars and traded up to $20,000 and Plan B would have said that it would be
8,000 dollars is what it’s worth based on the way that had traded from a period
of time and by the way supply and demand were both part of that model so people
say the demand is not part of the model don’t understand pricing because all
prices come from supply and demand and the model projects that out based on one
independent variable stock tableau so without having a metric by which we can
measure it how do we know whether or not the halving is priced in so I think this
is something we don’t tend to think about when we look at the stock market
we do have metrics and there is a consensus and it’s not perfect but there
is a consensus by which how we value stocks
we use various measures we use price-to-earnings price-to-book we use
price to cash flow we use dividend discount model x’ we use cashflow
discount models there are all kinds of things that we use and then you have
analysts who estimate earnings and look to make comparisons from one company to
another one company through an industry one company over market price price to
growth and all of these different models for valuation create a consensus model
for how we value something in the stock market well that barely exists in
Bitcoin so my question is if we don’t have a consensus way of valuing Bitcoin
and if possibly what some people are using is way off base and I think it’s
way off base and all we’re looking at is massive noise trading how can you
possibly price something in can’t price it in because most people have no idea
what they’re doing there’s only a very small number of people who begin to
understand what this asset is why it’s as valuable as it is and why it’ll be
worth as much as it will be and why and understand the nature of its scarcity
the qualities that it has is a money the quality is that it has for controlling
your own wealth through controlling your own private keys and all the things that
Bitcoin can do so I can’t see how it can possibly be priced in we’re at a very
early stage in this and I and I’m Marvel what I find amazing and and this is how
I can see Bitcoin getting to these numbers that people probably think I’m
crazy for thinking I actually think getting from zero to a hundred and
eighty billion dollars or wherever we are today is much harder than getting
from one hundred eighty billion dollars to a hundred trillion dollars because
getting from zero to one hundred and eighty billion dollars is miraculous and
people underestimate how miraculous it is from an asset which didn’t exist
which started off with no value started operating got people interested so they
wanted to buy some of it and start trading it and then
managed to monetize itself from literally nothing to where it is now and
so I think this asset is phenomenally misunderstood I think it is phenomenally
undervalued and I call Bitcoin the least expensive I don’t try to remember what I
say now what do I say it is the highest quality least expensive most
misunderstood asset in the global markets today well said really well set
and you cecily controversial in there to that it’s gonna be easier to get to a
you picked the number a hundred trillion well I’m not gonna get a debate about
that I would that’s a tremendous a third of the world’s wealth right there no I
actually know that it it’s much more than a third it’s much less than a third
of the world’s world’s wealth today stocks are in the neighborhood of 80
trillion ash bonds or a neighborhood of 250 to 300 trillion ash real estates
that I brought of 250 to 300 trillion ish gold is a trillion currencies are 90
trillion it’s much less than than a third of the wealth and I think that
Bitcoin will be pretty much the only real global store of value that exists
in the world and that store of value will come out of pretty much every asset
because it is verifiably scarce I think how amazing that is that you have
something which is scarce and liquid we don’t have anything other than gold that
we can compare which is both scarce and liquid we have things which are scarce
like art special real estate but of art and special real estate they tend not to
be very liquid stocks stocks seem to be produced by Wall Street fairly easily
that doesn’t mean that all stocks are good but and it doesn’t mean that all
companies are wonderful or special but companies are very different things they
each have their own idiosyncratic risk they have business risk associated with
what they do money or to have no idiots and
kradic risk and although some people would tell you and and and I’m we curse
and here’s where I’m really gonna go out on a limb I think the social layer of
Bitcoin actually protects Bitcoin from some catastrophic outcomes related to
technology because of people who don’t agree with me and work very hard to
prevent such outcomes and are constantly looking for potential problems that may
come about and fortunately these people do take this attitude which is an
extremely conservative attitude about Bitcoin I don’t want to go out on that
limb but I I think the odds of catastrophic failure are actually fairly
small and I think that we have already seen there was at least one incidents
that Andreas Antonopoulos talks about where you had to have a rollback to a an
earlier version of Bitcoin core but I’m not technical and I I don’t really want
to go out on this particular limb because it’s not an area where I have
strong expertise and others who know much more and discuss it far better than
I can discuss it and I want to be careful Nazira
I want to go back real quick and just point out something for everyone that’s
watching this tape you can go back when he was saying how to measure the network
of holders that is a great question that is a great question how what is the
proper measurement of the network of holders we we shall see I’m a I have
trust in all the minds out there that will get a great metric for that and
will put everything in perspective and and show us why we right now can’t say
the having is priced in because we don’t have the proper uh we don’t have a
proper metrics right now but I I want to move on from this beautiful talk by
Bitcoin Tina into something that some news of the week because again we got a
we do have to cover some of the news of the week real quick and one of the one
of one of the things that happened there was some exchange I never heard of
caught F coin that went down the tubes but it wasn’t a hack
actually it wasn’t a hack they were practicing a fractional reserve lending
over there they didn’t have what they had well they did fractional reserves
period they did not have the the Bitcoin they they said they had and I want to
ask you Boris I don’t know if you were familiar with
what happened at eff point but do you see this happening more and more that
since we all these exchanges out there aren’t required to show a proof of
reserves why not why not just fake the amount of Bitcoin fake it until you make
it and then when you get busted just run away yeah what what I liked about this
this particular case was that they were quite open about it usually we get all
these like shenanigans and there’s some some play and people disappear or
whatever is going on but but now they just send out a press communique and I
said yeah we were doing fractional reserve for me we couldn’t afford to to
pay everybody there bit coming back that’s what it is so there’s nothing
more to it I like there I mean they were open about it everybody who puts their
custodial service like this runs this risk yeah so they might that basically
it sounded like they were assuming that people already knew they were running
this risk we’re just open about yeah you lost your
money too bad nothing we can do about it and to be honest I like I like that I
mean most other exchanges should do the same thing and just tell everybody well
you can leave your money your Bitcoin here on this exchange but you’ll run the
risk of losing all of it no this is this is the space where we’re playing in
people here that another reason not to trade because there is no proof of
reserves so you must assume that especially the ones that are totally not
regulated and outside of the Western world that they’re practicing something
like this a Brian did you ever take on this yeah huh you know like Boris said
it’s refreshing that they were honest about it
but you know again coming from a you know and not understanding all this
point of view you know I I was rather hoping in an ideal in the idealistic
world this sort of stuff wouldn’t go on in Bitcoin because we’ve had enough of
it with the old financial model they’ve you know fracture fractional
of lending but you know it’s clearly unless there is something put in place
where you know proof of reserves is there it’s going to continue to happen
and you know I was only saying on my show yesterday you know I can see very
soon another mount GOx happening somewhere there’s gonna be a huge
exchange something’s gonna happen and you just don’t want any of your bitcoins
on an exchange the only thing you know unless if you’re a trader and you’re in
or out in and out of exchanges well hey listen fair play that you way to go not
for me it is about you know accumulating getting an offer on that exchange
controlling your own private keys you know this is going to happen as Bitcoin
gains momentum gains traction we head into the balls again you know it’s gonna
become we’re gonna hear more and more about this so my only advice is just get
it off in exchange don’t leave anything on an exchange that you don’t need to be
there no I I agree that we’re gonna have something like mount GOx
I bet it might not even be at an exchange though it might be at one of
these defy platforms what do you want you to either
second actually but I do a Bitcoin Tina proof of reserves fractional reserve a
fractional reserve exchanges do you have any thoughts on that
no I agree pretty much what Brian just had to say yeah excellent excellent
summation there all right well let’s get into the other news of the week it’s
been deep deep eyes been a flavor of the month lately okay people are excited
about the fight it’s bringing a lot of new people into the space no doubt about
it traditional investors like that kind of thing what I can get interest on my
holdings but as Chris black has pointed out who’s a big fan of defy this stuff
is centralized and decentralized and it can you could be stolen from very easily
so we’re getting these tremendous honey pots and so this week we saw a well we
saw a loss of funds was it a hack I don’t know what you want to call it do
you have thoughts on this Boris well whoever did it is obviously really
really good at understanding how these systems work when when I read what
actually went on it blew my mind because I had this the way this defy my work it
worked is that they you actually borrow the money and have to pay it back in the
same transaction so in this one transaction this guy manages to pump the
price on one exchange and buy stuff from another exchange there are some stuff on
another exchange and return the money and walk away with a profit yeah this is
extremely interesting that the the the buck was actually in the way that the
contract gets the price information from this exchange that wasn’t was obviously
not very liquid so yeah what went on is behind the scenes with these contracts
is really hard to find out so people are actually making an effort learning about
how this works yeah they can game the system and that’s what happened yeah
yeah actually I applaud them for it again they’re teaching everybody get
stuff a very very valuable lesson possibly more valuable than the funds
they lost because it wasn’t that much was about five hundred thousand dollars
or something okay Brian your thoughts on that defy and is it a centralized it’s
simple my thoughts if you want to lose your Bitcoin go and do something with
defy buy and hold Bitcoin that’s all I got to say limit baby I like that that’s
a good that’s a good way keep it simple people if you don’t understand what
you’re getting into you probably shouldn’t be getting into it Tony
Dressler sent twenty bucks and he’s thank you for the support Tony traveler
he says strong hands and dude I will be traveling real soon I’m going
uncomplicated Bowl in Las Vegas that should be an interesting time they’re
already over there aren’t they hey big boy Tina have I ever asked about defy do
you have any thoughts on defy I want to quote Parker Lewis excellent d financialization is the real defy profound that is awesome alright that’s
those are good words to sum up the DPI situation that we experienced this week
but hey guys you’re gonna hear more and more about this in the news people are
going to get into it no matter what there are all sorts of gamblers out
there and hey who knows with what will come about the next a few months from
all that let them do what they’re gonna do over there that’s what I say it
you’ve got to take care of yourself stick with the rock Bitcoin okay so
let’s see what else we have here we talked about beetween fractional
reserves alright I guess we’re at the pretty much at the end of the show here
but oh my European friends anything you want to say about your situation that we
might not know about in North America Boris what do you mean your but your
situation North America no no no just uh any news coming out of
Europe in turn well you had a Symon on some time ago he’s an a dutch lawyer and
he’s heavily involved with the way that the government is trying to regulate
Bitcoin companies basically we’ve seen a couple of companies leave the
Netherlands very bit being one of them and they’re by far the largest Bitcoin
company in the Netherlands probably in Europe they’re doing hundreds of
millions a month they’re next to Big Macs they’re one of the biggest
companies they’ve moved to to Panama some other companies have lots left as
well and what’s interesting is that these really strict F ATF regulations
are being put into place by a government who denies that they’re actually taking
away basic fundamental rights that people have rights of privacy for
instance and yeah that’s not happening and I mean those rights are not
recognized so we have this this government that’s actually on a on a
collision course with with bitcoiners and that’s a big problem and
I see I see some some real implications for this in the future
we’re not exactly at the end of this process there’s going to be there some
back-and-forth between different government agencies about this but once
these rules will be put in place basically large financial institutions
and banks will be the only companies able to hold and sell a Bitcoin and when
once that happens you’ll get the situation where you have this great
Bitcoin market and a white Bitcoin market an official white Bitcoin market
will be through the financial institutions and I could sense if I have
a bank account with some Bitcoin in I could send these funds to someone else
but only in another official custodial account which is regulated by some
financial institution and this is a huge problem it’s absolutely huge problem and
I agree with what Biff Catina said earlier I mean I’m bullish as can be but
these kind of hurdles has to be overcome first and yeah this discomfort and
regulation thing is going to turn a lot of people off on Bitcoin and it that’s
yeah that’s really a shame it turns away these companies it turns away innovation
it’s absolutely ridiculous but it’s a but it’s going on this subject matter
that you and Simon have now talked about on the show I mean you don’t really hear
about this at least in the english-speaking world or in the North
American sphere here not many people are talking about this and I really
appreciate that you and Simon have have brought it to this show that this this
subject matter and we’re keeping an eye on it best guest in the freaking space
people I’m bringing you different stuff you’re not gonna read about on the
mindless media out there on the fancy sets and graphics videos you’re gonna
hear about it here and I love I love these guys in bars here when it told me
about Simon we got to get him back on the show pretty soon all these dudes by
the way they’ve been on the show today best guests in the frickin space they
are linked to below their Twitter’s so follow them if you don’t already you
should they’re great I want to go to Brian real quick
any-any England news you have or do you have any thoughts also by the way Brian
on bigger news and I think you heard about this Morgan
Stanley looks to acquire etrade do you think that’s a sign of acquisitions in
the cryptocurrency space perhaps perhaps if you know if they’re willing to pay a
thirteen thirteen billion dollars for each trade is coinbase going to be
purchased even any thoughts about that well I don’t really have any thoughts I
have heard about it but you know for me you know again as a layman I just see
this as you know everything’s moving in the right direction that’s what I see it
as I do want to just shout out I I’m not aware of much news going on here in the
UK but I was pretty disappointed that bottle pay shut these doors you know as
a way of taking lightning payments but because of the KYC element it decided
that rather than compromise its customers and give their details over it
would shut its doors which was pretty sad it you know I mean very ethical from
auto-pay to do that you know but equally there’s another company a lightning
company that’s gone to the wall before you know us wanting to keep our privacy
and then wanting to keep our privacy in the government saying hand over us will
shut you down so basically where you won’t shut us down will shut ourselves
down but a good company that went to the wall that’s pretty well all I’m aware of
here I mean yeah I have heard about what’s going on with this acquisition
and for me personally like I can only see that as a huge positive for the
space all right Bitcoin Tina you’ve any closing thoughts
or anything where we’re here at the end of the show anything that we talked
about a lot today anything you want to add to that you’ve already said or some
thoughts you had that weren’t brought up and I think I’ve said enough but there
are seriously this is your time your conclusionary thoughts part of the show
I don’t have anything else to say thank you David may be a man of few
words right now but before lots of words all
right guys let’s hear Bryan your conclusionary thoughts well firstly
thank you if I have be back on the show I know there’s a
couple of times you asked and I wasn’t available but it’s great to be back on
the show I also want to say it was superb to be listening to Bitcoin Tina
and I could listen to him all day you should have had the show with him alone
because it was superb not decrying you Boris you know we had a great time on
when I interviewed you you as well but you know Bitcoin teener is just
incredible in my view controversial yes tend to use a lot of his tweets on my
show but that was superb if I can you know I do have my own YouTube channel
Bitcoin for beginners am I allowed to plug that is that okay yeah pound it
baby yeah so people just check me out UK
Bitcoin master comm Bitcoin interviews comm is where I’ve done all my
interviews today including Boris last week I’ve had Adam on you’re coming back
on album you don’t know it yet but you are I’m trying to get Simon Dixon on as
we speak I’m in communication with this PA I guess you call it vortex has been
on an cilinder many others so check bitcoin interviews elle.com out
but i do want to give a quick shout out if i may to a cause that’s going on that
very few people are getting to hear about and that is a cause for a lovely
gentleman from Cleveland in Hawaii Ohio called TAS to fill various you very
switched on Bitcoin er brought lots of people into the space doing a simple
trizol firmware update and was scammed out of 14.2 Bitcoin and I’ve just got
this philosophy and this belief in humanity that if thousands and thousands
of people do a little bit we can make a difference and I’m not gonna let up on
this until we’ve got fill some of that Bitcoin back particularly if you read
the man’s story sixteen years as a pastor in the church work within the
American military him and his family took in disadvantaged children and
adopted them as their own and he was building his Bitcoin for his
family when he was gone and the whole lot was hacked how would you feel people
if you had 14.2 Bitcoin today and tomorrow your wallet said zero because
you made a tiny error that anyone could make nevermind somebody has switched on
his ghost of so please I implore all of you if you’ve
got a tiny bit of litecoin kicking around be rhodium or even a bit of
Bitcoin head over to Bitcoin stolen calm and put a tiny donation in their pastor
Phil messages me every single time a donation comes in with bless the Lord
somebody’s donate his seven dollars and he is such a humble man and sorry I am
gonna take this opportunity people go and send flippin Bitcoin to blasted
Peter Schiff it does not need it send a little bit of Bitcoin to this lovely
posture out in Cleveland who desperately needs it that’s me
thanks for having me Ivan I greatly appreciate it awesome town that like
button people check out the URL II talked about forests you get to find a
word well thanks for having me and them it’s always a pleasure again yeah I like
it I love talk to Beth cornice was an honor to be on the show with Bitcoin
Tina I always love to hear him talk it’s yeah it’s great so guys thanks a lot and
I wish you all a very good night all right dudes that was a classic show
remember we do this every frickin Friday who knows what time it comes on it’s
this week at Bitcoin I do a new show here every day so of course please tune
in every day that’s a conviction for you right there strong and conviction you
know you get that year best guest in the space here Thank You guest
it was really a great time hey tomorrow I’m going to be in Las Vegas perhaps
we’ll see some people in Las Vegas tomorrow shabbat shalom everybody i’m
adam meister the bitcoinmeister the disrupt meister remember subscribe the
channel like the video share the video check out the links below town that like
one see you all have a great weekend everybody
see here’s everyone bye-bye see ya thank you

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